Trading data from Kalshi, a federally regulated exchange, reveals that fixed-size trades in its bitcoin and ether perpetual futures (perps) shifted in near-perfect sync on several occasions in August and September 2026. The pattern, first highlighted in ether perps, now appears in bitcoin perps as well, raising fresh questions about the nature and intent behind these trades.
Synchronized Trade Size Changes Detected
Analysis of Kalshi’s public trading records shows that on three separate occasions, the dominant trade sizes for both bitcoin and ether perps changed within 10 minutes of each other. For example, at 11:07 p.m. ET on August 23, both markets saw their fixed trade sizes shift simultaneously. Over two months, more than half of the bitcoin perp’s notional value was traded at a handful of set sizes, echoing the pattern that previously drew scrutiny to ether perps.
Market Maker Activity and Volume Concerns
Kalshi has stated that the fixed-size trades are consistent with a single market maker posting resting orders, and that faster traders are taking these orders when prices are stale. However, analysis indicates that the traders who took these fixed-size trades in bitcoin did no better than random chance when compared to broader market prices. This finding challenges the explanation that traders are consistently profiting from stale quotes.
Experts suggest that automated systems used by market makers could be responsible for the synchronized shifts. Some believe these practices may artificially inflate trading volume, as indicated by the low open interest to volume ratio.
Regulatory and Transparency Issues
Kalshi, as a regulated exchange, is aware of the identities behind these trades but has declined to comment on individual trader activity. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which oversees Kalshi, did not respond to inquiries about the trading patterns. While Kalshi confirmed that its main volume incentive program was not active during this period, three other incentive programs for perps trading were live, though no public notices were issued about their start dates.
Why This Matters for Market Participants
The synchronized changes in trade sizes and the dominance of fixed-size trades raise questions about the transparency and integrity of reported trading volumes. Operators, affiliates, and suppliers rely on accurate volume data to assess market health and liquidity. If volumes are being artificially boosted by coordinated market maker activity, it could mislead participants about the true level of market engagement and risk.
Key takeaways
- Synchronized fixed-size trades were detected in both bitcoin and ether perps on Kalshi.
- Analysis suggests these trades did not outperform random chance, challenging claims of stale quote sniping.
- Experts point to market maker automation and potential artificial volume inflation.
- Kalshi has not disclosed participant identities or provided full transparency on incentive programs.