Sportradar reported that prediction markets contributed positively to its third-quarter results for the first time, as the company expanded its presence in this emerging sector. The development comes amid a significant acceleration in U.S. revenue growth, with the company highlighting new and expanded agreements across exchanges, brokers, and market makers.
Prediction Markets Gain Traction
According to Sportradar executives, prediction markets have become a meaningful new revenue stream, reflecting the company's ability to monetize its core data and technology capabilities in adjacent markets. While the company did not specify the exact contribution from prediction markets to its €98 million U.S. revenue, the third quarter saw U.S. revenue rise by 47%, a marked increase from earlier in the year.
Sportradar's ecosystem now includes agreements with three exchanges—Kalshi, Polymarket, and Novig—a broker agreement with Robinhood, and around ten market-maker partnerships. The Polymarket partnership, for example, now covers more than 20 sports leagues and competitions. These partnerships follow earlier delays in finalizing prediction-market deals, which had impacted previous guidance.
Minimal Investment, Expanding Reach
The company emphasized that serving prediction market clients requires minimal additional investment, as it leverages existing infrastructure, rights, and teams used for its betting business. Sportradar is also developing a dedicated prediction-market feed using real-time data, including a model for NBA events that aims to predict outcomes seconds in advance.
Market makers have become a particular focus, with the CEO estimating a pool of over 300 firms depending on the exchanges included. These firms seek faster data for sports-event trading, and Sportradar claims to provide official feeds with superior speed, such as line calls in tennis delivered faster than competitors.
Why This Matters for the Industry
The growing importance of prediction markets signals a shift for operators, affiliates, and suppliers as traditional sports betting growth slows. For operators and affiliates, prediction markets represent a complementary revenue stream and a new avenue for customer engagement. Suppliers like Sportradar can diversify their client base and stabilize revenues by serving both betting and prediction-market sectors. Regulators may also take note as these markets expand, potentially requiring updates to oversight frameworks.
Additionally, the demand for advanced data and integrity services is likely to rise as prediction markets mature, creating further opportunities for technology and data providers.
Financial Performance and Outlook
Sportradar reported overall third-quarter revenue of €362.5 million, a 24% increase year over year. U.S. revenue accounted for 27% of total revenue, up from 23% in the previous year. Adjusted EBITDA grew 21% to €102.2 million, though margins declined slightly. The company maintained its full-year outlook for 2026, projecting revenue between €1.518 billion and €1.533 billion, and adjusted EBITDA of €360 million to €368 million.
Management expects prediction markets to contribute significantly more by 2027, though they declined to provide specific forecasts. The company also noted that growth in prediction markets is helping to offset challenges in other regions, such as Brazil.
Key takeaways
- Prediction markets contributed positively to Sportradar's Q3 results for the first time.
- U.S. revenue growth accelerated to 47% year over year in Q3.
- Agreements now span exchanges, brokers, and market makers, broadening Sportradar's reach.
- Sportradar expects prediction markets to drive significant growth by 2027.