Kenya's Gambling Regulatory Authority (GRA) is taking steps to introduce a dedicated license category for prediction markets, aiming to bring this emerging sector under formal regulation. The move signals an effort to establish a unique legal framework for prediction markets, which have so far operated without specific oversight in Kenya.
Early Stage Regulatory Development
The GRA’s plans are still in the initial phases, with details yet to be finalized regarding which event types will be covered or how the regulator will oversee the sector. There is also no clarity on whether the license will allow the use of fiat, cryptocurrency, or both. The regulator’s Director General, Peter Karimi, has stated that the board considers prediction markets a form of gambling, as they involve wagering on future outcomes.
Regional Context and Industry Response
Prediction markets have faced varying regulatory responses across Africa. In contrast to South Africa, where the South African Bookmakers Association has raised concerns about unlicensed prediction market offerings, Kenya appears to be adopting a more open approach. The GRA is considering licensing prediction markets linked to sports, elections, and economic indicators, including international platforms that accept cryptocurrency. Local legal experts have described the move as progressive and potentially beneficial for the industry.
Implications for Industry Stakeholders
For operators, affiliates, and suppliers, the introduction of a prediction markets license could provide much-needed legal certainty and a clear regulatory pathway into the Kenyan market. Bringing prediction markets under a unified framework is expected to enhance investor confidence and improve player protection. However, the lack of detailed guidelines means stakeholders will need to monitor further announcements from the GRA.
Ongoing Regulatory Challenges
The broader Kenyan gambling industry continues to navigate regulatory uncertainties, including ongoing legal disputes over increased licensing fees. The GRA has indicated a willingness to refund excess fees if courts rule against the hikes, but the issue remains unresolved.
Key takeaways
- Kenya's GRA is moving to license and regulate prediction markets.
- Details on event types, oversight, and payment methods are still pending.
- The initiative could provide legal clarity and protection for operators and players.
- Regulatory and legal uncertainties persist in the wider Kenyan gambling sector.
Update (03.11.2026)
The proposed framework may also extend to international prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, though neither has been confirmed as seeking a Kenyan licence. At this stage, the regulator has not released a timeline, eligibility requirements, fee details, or technical standards for the new licence. The initiative remains in the early stages and does not yet constitute an established licensing regime.