DraftKings is gearing up for the upcoming football season by significantly broadening its prediction market offerings. The company's Railbird Exchange, also known as DKeX, has recently self-certified nine categories of football event contracts, just days after filing its COMBOS product.
On August 10, Railbird Exchange submitted these product certifications to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The newly certified markets closely resemble the offerings typically found in mobile sportsbooks, encompassing game winners, spreads, totals, player and team statistics, game-level metrics, in-game achievements, player-versus-player performance, seasonal awards, and overall outcomes. These contracts are expected to be certified by August 12, allowing them to be listed for trading shortly thereafter.
During a Q2 earnings call last week, CEO Jason Robins expressed optimism about the prediction market segment, predicting a significant uptick in activity during the football season. He anticipates that the NFL season will attract “millions and millions of customers” to the exchange, making it the largest season to date.
DraftKings’ prediction market has experienced rapid growth, with annualized volume skyrocketing from $2.3 billion in April to $11 billion by July. Robins noted that over 600,000 customers have engaged with the product this year, far exceeding initial expectations.
The August 10 filings introduce nine distinct football contract categories. The FOOTBALLWIN category determines if a team wins a game or a specific segment, akin to traditional moneyline betting. FOOTBALLSPREAD assesses whether a team wins by a certain margin or loses by less than a specified point differential, mirroring point-spread betting.
FOOTBALLTOTALS evaluates whether a team or both teams score above or below a predetermined number of points, similar to over/under markets. Additionally, prop-style markets are included: FOOTBALLENTITYSTAT tracks individual player or team statistics, while FOOTBALLGAMESTAT covers overall game statistics. FOOTBALLENTITYACHIEVEMENT focuses on specific player or team accomplishments during a game.
The remaining categories involve head-to-head statistical comparisons, season-long awards, and outright competition results. These contracts apply to both professional and college football, explicitly mentioning the NFL and college football, including the College Football Playoff, while allowing for other football competitions.
Three days prior to the football certifications, DKeX self-certified its COMBOS product. Under this August 7 filing, a COMBOS contract merges the outcomes of at least two separately listed and certified DKeX contracts. COMBOS, which are akin to parlays in traditional sportsbooks, received certification on August 11, just a day before the majority of newly filed football products.
DraftKings Predictions already utilizes Crypto.com’s exchange infrastructure for its combos. Robins mentioned that over half of Predictions customers have engaged with combos, which now represent approximately 20% of consumer trading volume. By integrating both the foundational football markets and combos into DKeX, DraftKings aims to channel more sports trading volume to its own exchange. Robins indicated that the company plans to internalize most of its major sports contracts, believing this strategy will enhance unit economics.