According to the American Gaming Association (AGA), Americans are anticipated to place $29.5 billion in legal wagers on the upcoming 2026 NFL season through licensed commercial sportsbooks. This figure shows only a slight increase from the $29.4 billion wagered during the previous NFL season.
The NFL season is set to commence on September 9, featuring a Super Bowl rematch between the New England Patriots and the Seattle Seahawks in Seattle.
Since the U.S. Supreme Court overturned the federal ban on sports betting in 2018, the legal sports betting landscape has expanded consistently. However, AGA President and CEO Bill Miller noted that the rise of prediction markets is beginning to hinder this growth.
“We’re thrilled for the NFL season to start, as are millions of fans eager to connect with their favorite teams. Since the Supreme Court's decision in 2018, the growth of legalized sports betting has been remarkable,” Miller stated.
“Yet, this year presents a different scenario. With the recent proliferation of backdoor sports betting through ‘prediction markets,’ the growth in legal wagering has stagnated,” he added.
The AGA cautioned that these prediction markets are providing sports-related contracts across all 50 states and Washington, D.C., including areas where sports betting remains illegal. Approximately 80% of the volume on market leader Kalshi comes from sports bets, with an estimated $5.1 billion originating from users aged 18 to 20.
Since 2025, the AGA reported that prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket have diverted over $1.3 billion in potential gaming tax revenue for states. In contrast, regulated gaming supports around 1.8 million jobs and generates nearly $18 billion annually in sports betting tax revenue.
The prediction market sector is currently facing legal scrutiny regarding whether contracts for sports events should be classified as financial products under federal regulation or as wagers subject to state gambling laws. This legal dispute may escalate to the U.S. Supreme Court.
Miller also expressed concerns that prediction markets could leave consumers unprotected compared to regulated sports betting.
“These ‘prediction market’ platforms are misleading consumers by promoting sports wagers as investments, rather than what they truly are: a form of entertainment,” he remarked.
“Kalshi and other similar platforms argue they are not required to comply with state and tribal sports betting regulations or pay state gaming taxes. This noncompliance means that consumers, including minors and college freshmen, are placing bets without the safeguards, oversight, and accountability that the legal market ensures,” he concluded.