The NFL has established a series of requirements that prediction markets must follow before any official betting exchanges can be associated with the league. Currently, brands are resorting to unconventional methods to engage with football fans.
This football season, prediction markets are aggressively working to attract customers, but they will not have any formal connection to the NFL. Advertisements for these exchanges will not be seen during games or in stadiums, and teams are prohibited from entering sponsorship agreements with these companies. Additionally, players are not allowed to promote their products.
For the NFL to consider a partnership with prediction markets, these platforms will need to comply with the league's stipulations.
Novig, a newcomer in the prediction market arena, claims that its recently announced “Responsible Trading Framework” was developed without influence from the NFL. Nevertheless, the new guidelines appear to address some of the league's concerns.
The framework includes several standards, such as a minimum age of 21, tools for self-regulation for users, responsible marketing practices, requirements for monitoring risky behavior, and other consumer protections included in contracts.
In a letter to the CFTC in July, the NFL expressed its worries about markets that could be vulnerable to manipulation or insider trading. The league also outlined advertising restrictions, the ability to contest certain contracts, and the 21-year minimum age as key priorities.
While discussions between the NFL and prediction markets are ongoing, an official collaboration seems unlikely until operators meet the league's conditions. According to Eric Foote, founder and CEO of VIG Partners, maintaining the integrity of the sport — a central theme in the NFL's July letter to the CFTC — is crucial to these negotiations.
“There are four or five areas where the NFL is going to push hard,” Foote, who is knowledgeable about the league's discussions with prediction markets, told Gambling Insider. “Until they receive clear guidance on most of those, I expect they will remain on the sidelines for the duration of this NFL season or at least part of it.”
One of the NFL’s requests for prediction markets is a minimum age that aligns with national sports betting standards, which Foote believes may have influenced Novig's approach.
“I think they are following the NFL's playbook to see what leverage they can gain and starting at 21,” Foote remarked.
Jacob Fortinsky, founder of Novig, clarified in an email, “Our Responsible Trading framework was not created in response to the NFL. We had been developing these standards prior to the NFL's announcement.”
“The same applies to our 21+ age requirement. Novig has always operated as a 21+ platform, even before we became federally regulated. While we respect the NFL's and other leagues' views on responsible participation, these decisions were made based on our business philosophy and the standards we wish to set for the industry.”
“We hope to lead by example and create what we call a race to the top.”
Are other prediction markets willing to adopt the 21+ standard? While Novig's responsible gaming framework has received accolades across the gambling industry and could pave the way for NFL acceptance, it may face pushback from other exchanges.
“I think it will be very challenging for prediction markets to shift from an 18 to a 21 age limit,” Foote noted.
Dean Sisun, co-founder and CEO of ProphetX, another new player in the prediction market space, commented on Novig's policies, saying, “I appreciate much of what they have implemented. However, I am not entirely on board with the age requirement. It may sound controversial, but these are fundamentally different instruments than gambling. Why should they be subject to the same regulations?”
“I have always believed that you can serve in the military at 18, yet you cannot place a sports bet until you are 21?”