Kalshi has welcomed 3 million new users as a result of heightened trading activity during the 2026 FIFA World Cup. The trading volume for contracts predicting the tournament winner skyrocketed, with CNBC reporting over $1.2 billion exchanged on Kalshi's platform, marking a record for a single market.
The market concluded on Sunday after Spain triumphed over Argentina in the final match.
Vijay Viswanathan, Associate Dean of Integrated Marketing Communications at Northwestern University, shared insights with CNBC, stating, "I don't think there's any game like football. It's played in nearly every country globally, making the FIFA World Cup unparalleled in terms of total addressable market."
Kalshi collaborated with ADI Predictstreet, the official prediction market sponsor for the World Cup, to implement co-branded advertising within stadiums. Additionally, they partnered with OpenAI to showcase contract odds in response to user inquiries about World Cup matches on ChatGPT.
The advertising campaigns also featured notable figures such as Croatian soccer player Luka Modric, former Real Madrid coach José Mourinho, and a collaboration with the Argentina national team that led to a shoutout from Lionel Messi on Instagram.
Kalshi's CEO, Tarek Mansour, emphasized the importance of aligning their strategy with current events, stating, "Our volumes are where the news is at. The World Cup approach is all about enabling creativity based on what's happening."
Mansour highlighted the rapid turnaround of their campaigns, noting that an advertisement featuring ex-professional soccer players was produced within a mere 24 hours.
In addition to sports figures, Kalshi expanded its advertising efforts by launching a campaign with actor Timothée Chalamet in June, coinciding with his appearances at NBA Finals games, as well as a recent collaboration with Colombian artist J Balvin.
Elizabeth Johnson, Executive Director of the Wharton Neuroscience Initiative at the University of Pennsylvania, remarked, "This is also a way for them to say, 'oh, but we’re also relevant to all these other people who might not be that interested in sports, too.' They're taking this opportunity to remind everyone of the widespread nature of prediction markets."
However, the contracts related to sports events have become a contentious issue between federal and state regulators, with states arguing that these contracts resemble sports betting, which falls under their jurisdiction.
Kalshi maintains that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which regulates swaps and derivatives, has exclusive authority over prediction markets. Mansour dismissed the opposition, attributing it to gambling companies worried about losing their market dominance.
Now, Kalshi faces the challenge of converting these new users into loyal participants. Trading volumes on non-World Cup days have been significantly lower compared to match days.
Mansour noted that this trend is consistent with patterns observed after previous major events, where trading volumes initially rise, then dip temporarily before climbing again with subsequent news cycles.
"You have to believe there's not going to be any news after Sunday," he stated. "Maybe, ... but the more likely scenario is that numerous events will unfold globally, and Kalshi will be ready to cater to them."