A recent study commissioned by Euromat, the European gaming industry association, reveals that Europe's illegal online gambling market is projected to reach approximately €12 billion ($13.94 billion) in net revenue by 2025. This figure represents a threefold increase since 2019 and accounts for 25% of the overall online gambling sector.
The research, conducted by Regulus Partners and Helios, analyzed 28 online gambling markets across Europe, including the EU27 (excluding Malta and Luxembourg) and adding the UK, Serbia, and Montenegro. The study involved over 1,000 hours of detailed analysis, utilizing digital marketing and web traffic data alongside macroeconomic and socio-political factors, particularly focusing on the effects of regulatory interventions in various countries.
Filip Jelavić, the Owner and Project Lead at Helios, emphasized that the primary objective of the study was to understand the size, growth patterns, characteristics, and underlying causes of the rapid expansion of the black-market gambling ecosystem.
Jelavić noted that government policies could inadvertently drive consumers towards illegal operators. He stated, “It’s evident that black markets in online gambling do not emerge spontaneously; they are often a consequence of government regulations that create friction for consumers. The main factors include limited choices due to regulations, state monopolies, low visibility, price distortions, and interventionist measures like affordability checks that disrupt established consumer behavior.”
He explained that significant shifts of discretionary spending from legal to illegal markets could have serious implications for governments regarding tax revenues, for individuals concerning player protection, and for both regulated online and land-based entertainment brands due to the migration of consumer spending.
Jelavić also pointed out the increasing influence of cryptocurrencies in the illegal gambling space. “Our findings indicate that leading black-market operators have developed recognizable brands with substantial market shares. The rapid rise of cryptocurrencies has been crucial for differentiating products and finding regulatory workarounds,” he remarked.
He added that very few European jurisdictions have implemented effective solutions for allowing legal cryptocurrency gambling, creating a dual pressure: a push from crypto consumers and a pull from crypto ecosystems that evade scrutiny. For many smaller sites, affiliate businesses offer a cost-effective way to attract players, making enforcement challenging even when laws exist.
Jelavić cautioned that consumer protection measures could have unintended negative effects. “While these policies are essential, they can become counterproductive if they inadvertently push players into the black market. Those who actively seek out black markets are often the most vulnerable to harm or exploitation,” he warned.
Jason Frost, President of Euromat, expressed that illegal gambling poses a significant threat to both online and land-based markets. “The illegal black market is a critical issue for anyone who values a progressive and fairly regulated leisure and entertainment economy, whether in physical venues or online,” he stated in a press release.
Frost referenced findings from the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC), which indicate that organized crime groups may use illegal gambling profits to fund other criminal activities. “According to the UNODC, these groups view illegal gambling as a 'cash cow,' using the profits to finance high-risk criminal enterprises like drug trafficking, human trafficking, and arms smuggling,” he noted.