ADI Predictstreet, a prediction market startup, has surprisingly emerged as a partner of FIFA, claiming its network is valued in the billions. However, an investigation by Gambling Insider has unveiled that the venue generates approximately $7,000 in daily fees, operates in a foreign currency, and is overseen by three unidentified keyholders.
When ADI Predictstreet showcased its branding at the FIFA World Cup this summer, it positioned itself as more than just a betting platform. The company asserted that it represented the front end of ADI Chain, a blockchain based in Abu Dhabi that is touted as 'institutional-grade.' This narrative helped the startup, which lacks a track record, to align itself with major brands like Coca-Cola and Visa as a FIFA partner.
A blockchain serves as a public ledger where every transaction is permanently recorded and accessible to anyone. This transparency allows for scrutiny of the technology's actual performance. ADI Chain’s block explorer and the analytics platform DefiLlama provide insights that contrast with the company's marketing claims.
So far, ADI has only disclosed one raw trading statistic: around 126,000 trades were executed in the first 18 days. However, this figure lacks a corresponding monetary value. The differentiation is crucial, as the number of trades and their value can diverge significantly.
Based on the reported trades, ADI's daily average stands at roughly 7,000. Yet, when examining the trade sizes, which range from about $4 to $35, the estimated total value of these trades over the 18 days amounts to between $1 million and $4 million. This estimate aligns with the approximately $4.14 million locked on the chain and the $7,248 in fees recorded in a recent 24-hour period.
In comparison, Kalshi and Polymarket reported trading volumes of approximately $1 billion and $4 billion, respectively, in their World Cup winner markets. While a company with substantial trading volumes provides concrete financial data, ADI only reported the number of trades.
In late June, ADI Predictstreet and Kalshi announced a strategic partnership, co-branding during the World Cup knockout phase. However, given that Kalshi’s winner market alone surpassed a billion dollars in turnover, the benefits of ADI's association with Kalshi remain unclear.
While ADI Chain is operational and the trades executed are legitimate, they are relatively small in scale. For instance, a trade executed on August 19 involved just $28, with others settling for amounts like $10, $8.60, and $4.40. These figures reflect the stakes one might place on a single soccer market, rather than the transactions typical of a national financial system.
The daily transaction count may appear impressive, but most transactions are automated order-matching processes from a limited number of operator accounts, rather than individual bettors. The diversity of participants on either side of the trades indicates a genuine market, albeit a modest one. The total value locked (TVL) on the chain was around $4.14 million in mid-August, remaining in the low single-digit millions even during the World Cup, which was likely the peak of ADI's marketing efforts.