On July 24, the prediction market platform Polymarket opened a market on the bankruptcy of the Wildberries marketplace by the end of 2026. This launch coincided with a series of drone attacks on the company's warehouses in July.
The trading volume reached $35,000, with participants estimating a 17% probability of bankruptcy announcement.
The condition for a 'Yes' outcome will be the announcement by LLC RVB, operating under the Wildberries brand, or its parent or subsidiary structure about filing for bankruptcy by December 31. Simply announcing through the company's official channels will suffice, even if the application is later rejected or withdrawn. However, reports that bankruptcy is merely being considered will not qualify for the calculation.