Polymarket is working towards re-establishing access to its primary platform for U.S. users after a prolonged period of regulatory restrictions. This initiative could significantly alter the landscape of prediction markets in the United States.
The platform, known for being one of the largest in the world, has largely excluded American users from its main exchange since 2022. Currently, Polymarket is in talks with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to lift these restrictions.
These discussions, first highlighted by Bloomberg, reveal the limitations of Polymarket’s current strategy, which relies on operating an offshore platform while offering a partially developed domestic beta.
In contrast, domestic competitor Kalshi has successfully navigated regulatory waters since its inception, establishing a strong presence in the U.S. market. Kalshi has formed partnerships with major firms like Robinhood and Coinbase, achieving a valuation of $22 billion as of March. Meanwhile, Polymarket, despite its international acclaim, is aiming for a valuation of $15 billion.
Polymarket made an attempt to enter the domestic market by acquiring QCEX, a CFTC-registered derivatives exchange, for $112 million in July 2025. Although the CFTC issued a no-action letter, the launch of Polymarket US’s beta at the end of 2025 did not meet expectations.
The domestic offering is limited to sports markets and is hindered by a waitlist, leaving many users waiting for access. It lacks key categories like politics and macroeconomic events that fueled its international growth. The company has expressed intentions to branch into climate, cryptocurrency, and election markets, though no timeline has been provided.
The future of Polymarket now hinges on convincing CFTC Chairman Michael Selig to give them another opportunity. Any potential changes would necessitate a formal vote from the commission. With four out of five CFTC positions currently unfilled, Selig effectively holds the decision-making power and has shown a willingness to incorporate more prediction market activities under the agency’s jurisdiction.
During a House Agriculture Committee meeting on April 16, Selig indicated a commitment to ensuring that products currently taking liquidity away from the U.S. return under comprehensive regulation.
Discussions are reportedly exploring options like integrating the offshore platform’s blockchain technology with the domestic exchange or fully consolidating onto the U.S.-licensed platform. Both scenarios would require significant structural adjustments.
This decision is also set against a broader legal context, with the CFTC asserting its federal authority over prediction markets in court, while several states argue these products should be regulated as gambling.
However, not everyone is in favor of Polymarket's return. A group of House Democrats recently urged Selig to enforce stricter regulations against offshore prediction markets, citing concerns over insider trading and national security, referencing notable trading scandals involving bets on political events in Venezuela and Iran.
Since the restriction on U.S. users in 2022, Polymarket has continued to thrive offshore. The platform has become a key player in political forecasting for the upcoming 2024 U.S. presidential election, processing over $3 billion in trades monthly by October 2025. The Intercontinental Exchange, which owns the New York Stock Exchange, has also committed up to $2 billion in investments, valuing Polymarket at $8 billion.