A recent survey conducted by Ipsos, commissioned by the American Institute for Boys and Men, reveals that a significant portion of US adults perceive prediction market trading as more akin to gambling than investing.
The findings indicate that 61% of participants believe prediction market trading is “closer to gambling,” while only 8% consider it “closer to investing.” Additionally, 18% view it as a blend of both categories, and 12% regard it as neither.
Prediction markets have become increasingly popular, allowing users to trade contracts linked to various outcomes in sports, politics, business, news, and entertainment. This growth has attracted scrutiny from regulators and stakeholders in the gambling sector.
Conducted between February 27 and March 1, the Ipsos survey included responses from 2,363 adults, with a specific focus on men aged 18 to 24 as an oversampled demographic.
Jonathan Cohen, the policy lead at the American Institute for Boys and Men, highlighted that younger men face heightened risks associated with gambling, particularly as access to sports-related contracts expands. “The harms of sports gambling are disproportionately concentrated among younger men, and prediction markets represent a new frontier in discussions about sports gambling,” Cohen stated in an interview with Axios.
Tarek Mansour, CEO of the prediction market platform Kalshi, has challenged the notion that prediction markets are similar to gambling. “I just don't really know what this has to do with gambling,” he remarked in April. “If we are gambling, then I think you're basically calling the entire financial market gambling.”
Regulatory bodies at both federal and state levels are currently evaluating how prediction markets should be regulated. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has signaled its intent to take legal action to uphold its regulatory authority.
Moreover, several state gaming commissions, including Nevada’s gaming regulator, have begun implementing measures to restrict prediction market operations within their jurisdictions.
Cohen noted that public perception could significantly influence the regulatory framework for these platforms. “If people view this as more like gambling than investing, then it follows that these platforms — especially those dealing with sports contracts — should be regulated more similarly to gambling,” he explained.
The survey also highlights that awareness of prediction markets remains relatively low, with about 20% of Americans indicating they are somewhat familiar with them. Only around 4% reported using a prediction market in the past six months. Cohen believes this suggests there is potential for public attitudes and regulatory perspectives to evolve as awareness increases.