A recent survey indicates that over 80% of Americans perceive purchasing contracts on sporting events, such as the NCAA Tournament, through prediction markets as a form of gambling.
This finding is part of the 'Gambling is Not Investing' poll, commissioned by an organization aiming to prevent federally regulated online exchanges from offering such contracts. Morning Consult conducted the survey earlier this month, and Gambling Insider obtained the results over the weekend.
Mick Mulvaney, Executive Director of Gambling is Not Investing, stated, “This polling confirms that unrestricted sports gambling on prediction markets is a growing concern across America. These markets are attempting to present their sports betting products as financial investments, misleading consumers and avoiding necessary protections like age restrictions.”
Prediction markets have been providing sports betting contracts for over a year, aligning with the onset of the second Trump Administration. Mike Selig, nominated by President Trump to lead the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), has shown strong support for these markets since his Senate confirmation in December.
Only 29% of those surveyed believe the CFTC can effectively oversee sports event contracts. The poll, conducted online from March 17-22, gathered over 15,000 responses with a margin of error of plus or minus 1%.
When informed that prediction markets enable investments based on sporting event outcomes, 81% labeled it as gambling, while 73% felt that terms like “event contracts” and “futures” obscure the financial risks involved.
More than half of the respondents, 56%, equated the risks of purchasing sports event contracts on prediction market platforms to those of betting at state-licensed sportsbooks. However, only 34% expressed confidence that these platforms provide protections similar to those of licensed sportsbooks. Nearly half, 49%, reported a lack of trust in prediction markets' ability to prevent insider trading.
Furthermore, 81% believe that prediction markets should adhere to state sports betting regulations, including age restrictions and responsible gambling measures. Currently, these markets allow adults as young as 18 to participate, while most states require individuals to be at least 21.
Additionally, 78% of respondents agreed that operators of prediction markets should pay the same taxes and fees as traditional sportsbooks. In many states, sports betting operators are taxed on their revenue, while prediction market operators facilitate trades and charge commissions. Critics argue that the involvement of market makers in prediction markets makes them functionally similar to sportsbooks.
The survey results come at a time when various states, both those that have legalized sports betting and those that have not, are pursuing legal action against prediction market operators, asserting their right to regulate gaming activities.