The Roosevelt Institute, an American analytical center, has released the first part of its study titled The Hidden House focusing on prediction markets. The authors analyzed over 400 million transactions on the Kalshi platform, with a total volume exceeding $32 billion from July 2021 to May 2026. Here are the key findings:
- $583.5 million โ losses incurred by ordinary traders (market takers) over the entire period, according to the authors.
- $371.6 million โ losses on sports contracts.
- $111.6 million โ total losses across various markets including cryptocurrencies ($29.5 million), politics ($26.1 million), word mentions ($16 million), entertainment ($11.1 million), climate and weather ($5.4 million), and others ($23.5 million).
- $100.4 million โ losses on combined contracts (parlays).
- 279.2 million โ transactions on sports contracts.
- 78.7 million โ transactions on cryptocurrency markets.
- 71.7 million โ transactions on other markets, including combined contracts (18.1 million), climate and weather (15.7 million), word mentions (12.4 million), politics (7 million), entertainment (6.5 million), and others (12.1 million).
The authors state that, based on the data presented in the study, a typical user of prediction markets loses 8% of their betting amount, compared to 5% for a bookmaker's client. Kalshi itself has acknowledged that the number of users losing money on the platform is nearly three times greater than those making a profit.
Kalshi's official data partner, Dune, closed public access to transaction information on May 15, just two days after Sportico published an investigation revealing that ordinary players lost about $117 million on parlays over four months. Now, access to the data costs $40,000. Dune denies any connection to the publication and claims that the change was planned in advance.