A recent study shared at a prominent gambling research conference has cast doubt on the credibility of the Gambling Survey for Great Britain (GSGB), which is the primary prevalence survey conducted by the U.K. Gambling Commission.
Daniel Waugh, a researcher affiliated with the University of Liverpool Management School, analyzed the participation estimates from the GSGB and compared them to administrative data sourced from licensed casinos, Betfair, and Football Pools.
The findings revealed that the GSGB’s participation estimates were significantly higher than the actual recorded visits in all three gambling sectors examined. Waugh presented these results at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas during the International Conference on Gambling and Risk-Taking, commonly referred to as the Eadington Conference.
This analysis follows the latest wave of the GSGB, which covers the period from July to October 2025. The survey reported an 18% response rate at the address level, falling short of the targeted 22%.
In total, the survey garnered 5,883 responses and employed weighting adjustments to address non-responses and enhance representativeness.
Discrepancies Between Administrative Data and Survey Estimates
Waugh’s research juxtaposed GSGB participation estimates with data collected from operators and the industry during comparable timeframes.
For casino gambling, the GSGB data suggested between 1.7 million and 2.9 million visits, while the actual recorded visits across licensed casinos were around 1.0 million. This discrepancy might be even more pronounced, as the survey specifically focused on in-person visits to table games, whereas casino operators estimate that 40% to 80% of visits do not involve table game play.
The analysis also looked at betting exchange participation, using data from Betfair, which Waugh estimates accounts for about 85% of the U.K. betting exchange market. The GSGB estimated the number of betting exchange participants to be between 467,499 and 611,768, while Betfair reported between 172,409 and 177,051 active customers.
In the case of Football Pools, where Football Pools Limited operates as a monopoly, the GSGB data suggested there were 862,961 participants, compared to only 108,699 unique customers recorded by Football Pools Limited.
Overall, Waugh found that casino participation estimates exceeded administrative data by 408% to 628%, betting exchange participation was overestimated by 164% to 225%, and Football Pools participation was inflated by a staggering 694%.
Broader Policy Implications Raised
When asked about the implications of these findings, Waugh expressed concerns regarding the survey’s reliability as a measure of gambling participation and associated harms. He stated, “The data shows that for the activities where I was able to obtain data, the GSGB massively overstates gambling participation.”
Waugh emphasized that this raises significant questions about the accuracy of the GSGB in providing reliable data on gambling activities, suggesting that the survey should not be relied upon for estimating population-level statistics related to gambling participation or harm.
He further noted, “This raises the issue that the Commission—and possibly the DCMS—may base regulatory policies on flawed information.”