Gibraltar has officially enacted the Prediction Market Regulations 2026, becoming the first jurisdiction to establish a dedicated regulatory framework for prediction markets. These regulations are now integrated into the Gambling Act 2025.
Announced by Gibraltar's Minister for Justice, Trade and Industry, Nigel Feetham, these pioneering regulations create a legal structure for prediction market operators and their contracts, clearly separating this sector from traditional gambling.
According to the new regulations, a prediction market is defined as a system or platform that enables the creation, trading, or settlement of contracts based on predictions—financial instruments whose value hinges on whether a specific event occurs or not.
A significant aspect of this framework is Regulation 4(3), which clarifies that prediction market activities will not be categorized as betting, gaming, or lottery solely due to their nature as prediction markets. This distinction ensures legal clarity for operators and establishes a unique regulatory category within Gibraltar's gambling laws.
The regulations empower Gibraltar's gambling authority to restrict or ban certain types of prediction market contracts if they conflict with regulatory goals or public welfare. Such restricted contracts may involve issues related to criminal activities, death, serious injury, terrorism, war, or events that cannot be objectively settled, as well as those that pose risks of market manipulation or consumer harm.
Operators of licensed prediction markets must implement thorough measures to maintain market integrity, including systems to prevent and detect market manipulation, insider trading, and collusive practices. They are also required to establish policies to manage conflicts of interest and ensure fair trading practices.
Furthermore, the framework mandates that operators provide participants with clear and accurate information while upholding strict anti-money laundering (AML) and counter-terrorist financing (CTF) controls.
This regulatory development follows Gibraltar's earlier approval of ADI Predictstreet in March and the licensing of WagerWire in June, marking them as the territory's inaugural licensed prediction market operators.
Minister Feetham emphasized that this initiative is not merely a new regulatory framework but a declaration of intent. He aims to position Gibraltar as a premier jurisdiction for responsible digital innovation and the advancement of new markets supported by high regulatory standards.
He also noted that Gibraltar is set to issue its first prediction market license under the new regulations soon, with an Approval in Principle already granted to another operator and further approvals expected shortly.
Feetham highlighted that the regulatory framework was developed through extensive collaboration with industry stakeholders, aiming to strike a balance between innovation and robust regulatory oversight. He added, “More importantly, it provides regulatory certainty for a rapidly evolving global industry while creating new opportunities for investment and diversifying Gibraltar’s economy.”
Gibraltar's initiative comes as other regions consider regulations for the expanding prediction market sector, with Malta also expressing intentions to create its own regulatory framework.