A recent survey conducted by Ipsos for the American Institute for Boys and Men (AIBM) indicates that many Americans perceive prediction markets similarly to gambling, with a significant majority leaning towards this view rather than seeing them as investment opportunities. Specifically, 61% of respondents, including a notable 71% of men aged 18 to 24, regard these platforms as gambling rather than investing, where only 8% view them as legitimate investments.
The AIBM commissioned this poll to gain insights into the perception of prediction markets within American society and the broader context of gambling. The study utilized a nationally representative sample of 2,363 adults, which included an oversample of 447 men aged 18 to 24.
Findings from the survey reveal a general lack of confidence among Americans regarding the integrity of financial tools, including sportsbooks and prediction markets, in preventing corruption. Only 9% of all respondents, and 27% of those familiar with prediction markets, expressed confidence that these platforms could effectively prevent individuals with insider information from gaining unfair advantages. In comparison, only 13% felt confident in online sports betting platforms, while 30% trusted the stock market.
Jonathan Cohen, AIBM’s policy lead, noted that the inclusion of the stock market in the study served as a baseline. However, the results showed that even established financial systems are viewed with skepticism. A staggering 70% of prediction market users lack full confidence that insider trading is absent from these platforms. This raises concerns about the potential risks associated with using prediction markets.
Interestingly, the survey also highlighted that only 21% of Americans are aware of what prediction markets entail. Among those who are informed, a significant 91% consider event contracts to be financially risky. This perception is echoed by Jessica Welman, a former gambling journalist and current advocate for responsible gambling, who pointed out the disconnect between industry perspectives and public understanding.
Although overall usage of prediction markets remains low, the survey found that young men are more inclined to engage with these platforms. In the past six months, 26% of young men reported participating in prediction markets or gambling activities.