Recent reports from the American Gaming Association (AGA) and the National Indian Gaming Commission (NIGC) reveal that both commercial and tribal gaming revenues are on the rise, despite the increasing interest in prediction markets.
The U.S. gaming sector is achieving record earnings even as various trade organizations, regulatory bodies, and tribal groups express concerns that prediction markets could undermine sportsbooks, tribal gaming, and state tax revenues.
The latest financial reports do not confirm whether prediction markets have shifted betting activities away from regulated sportsbooks. However, they also do not reflect the anticipated industry-wide revenue decline that critics have warned could stem from the growing popularity of these markets.
While these figures do not negate the industry's worries, many of which center on long-term market dynamics rather than immediate revenue results, they still highlight a robust gaming landscape.
As opposition to sports event contracts grows, the AGA has emerged as a leading voice against prediction markets. The organization is urging lawmakers and federal regulators to clarify that these contracts do not fall under the Commodity Exchange Act. The AGA contends that prediction markets enable operators to conduct sports betting across the country without the need for state gaming licenses, tax payments, or consumer protection measures.
Earlier this year, the AGA also introduced a public tracker that estimates the amount of state gaming tax revenue lost since the inception of prediction markets, currently estimated to exceed $1.21 billion.
Tribal gaming organizations are also voicing their concerns, with several tribes filing lawsuits against operators like Kalshi, arguing that these contracts breach tribal exclusivity agreements established by the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act (IGRA). Some tribes are calling on Congress and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to intervene before the market expands further.
Legal disputes between prediction market operators and state regulators have emerged in various jurisdictions, including Nevada, New Jersey, Maryland, Washington, Minnesota, New York, and New Mexico, where operators face litigation or enforcement actions. Both the AGA and tribal groups have sought to join several of these lawsuits.
Simultaneously, Congress has begun scrutinizing sports event contracts through committee hearings and the introduction of over two dozen bills.
Despite these challenges, the latest revenue data continues to indicate a thriving regulated gaming industry. The AGA's recent Commercial Gaming Revenue Tracker report shows that U.S. commercial gaming generated an unprecedented $7.06 billion in revenue in May, marking a 4.6% increase from the previous year. For the first five months of 2026, commercial gaming revenue totaled $34.0 billion, reflecting a 6.4% year-over-year growth.
In terms of sports betting, which the AGA claims is most impacted by sports event contracts, May's revenue saw a 1.8% decline compared to the previous year, a drop partially attributed to the rise of prediction markets. However, sports betting revenue from January to May increased by 8.5% compared to the same timeframe in 2025.
The tribal gaming sector also demonstrated similar growth, with the NIGC reporting a record gross gaming revenue of $46.2 billion for FY2025, a 5.3% increase over FY2024 and the highest annual total in Indian gaming history. The report does not provide separate figures for sports betting.
Seven out of the agency's eight regions experienced year-over-year revenue growth, indicating a positive trend across the board.