The prediction market for the 2026 World Cup has reached over $5 billion in trading volume across Polymarket's international exchange and the US-regulated Kalshi, as reported by Bloomberg News, which analyzed data from Dune Analytics and company records. This surge in trading is attributed to the increasing interest in sports event contracts, which allow for significant wagers in near real-time.
This tournament has become a notable record for substantial wins and losses. On Polymarket, an account named “GRIMDRIP” has achieved the highest known profit from the World Cup so far, transforming a $6 million stake into $13.6 million through two bets on the match between the Czech Republic and South Africa.
Another account, “mintblade,” successfully doubled a $7 million bet that Iran would not defeat New Zealand. Conversely, a different user incurred a loss of nearly $9 million after wagering on Belgium to triumph over Egypt.
These figures represent only a fraction of the overall market. Users on Polymarket can manage multiple accounts, and the platform does not verify identities on its international exchange, complicating the tracking of individual positions. Additionally, investors may hedge their bets through traditional sportsbooks or US-regulated prediction markets, where personal betting activity remains hidden.
The World Cup, featuring 104 matches, is still ongoing, with several group stage games and knockout rounds yet to be played. Alongside the NBA Finals, this tournament has enabled Kalshi to achieve its first three-day trading volume exceeding $1 billion, as stated by CEO Tarek Mansour.
Prediction markets are also providing gambling companies access to US states where traditional sports betting is not permitted, such as California and Texas. DraftKings, which ventured into prediction markets in 2025, reported that last weekend marked its highest volume for event contracts in anticipation of the Super Bowl in February. The company noted a more than 200% increase in total customers compared to the previous weekend, with a 100% rise in volume.
DraftKings Predictions experienced its most successful weekend to date, fueled by the NBA Finals and the World Cup's commencement. Customer numbers surged over 200% from the previous weekend, while consumer volume jumped by more than 100%, setting new records.
Both DraftKings and Kalshi have invested significantly in social media and television advertising, with DraftKings promoting its “sports app” as available nationwide and Kalshi collaborating with Croatian midfielder Luka Modric and Argentina’s Lionel Messi during the tournament.
World Cup betting has expanded beyond just match outcomes. Users can place bets on the Golden Boot, with France’s Kylian Mbappe as the favorite, and speculate on whether US President Donald Trump will attend the final match, with 87% of respondents saying he will.
According to company and blockchain records, of the 20 most profitable bets on Polymarket’s non-US exchange in the past week, only two were not related to the World Cup. An account named “endlessFate” earned $5.6 million from Saudi Arabia’s match against Uruguay and another $2.7 million betting on Colombia to defeat Uzbekistan, while also recording a $1.2 million loss on a bet regarding a tie between the US and Paraguay last week.
Despite some significant wins, overall profits remain rare. Research conducted by Bender and colleagues at Citizens indicates that retail customers on prediction markets generally lose money over time and perform worse than those betting through sportsbooks.
“The trends we are observing during the World Cup suggest that prediction markets are on a robust growth path,” stated Chris Grove, an analyst at Eilers & Krejcik Gaming.