According to an investment bank, the U.S. sports betting market is currently too small to significantly influence global wagering predictions for the upcoming FIFA World Cup, even with the recent expansion of legal sports betting access.
Macquarie's analysis indicates that the U.S. is expected to contribute only around 5% to the global betting volume during the 2026 FIFA World Cup. The bank projects that the total global betting volume could reach $50 billion, making this tournament the largest betting event ever.
This estimate clarifies why Macquarie has maintained its prediction of approximately $0.5 billion in betting volume per match. This figure mirrors that of the 2022 tournament, despite the increased legal betting options in the U.S., North American hosting, and the rise of various betting products like same-game parlays and live betting.
Chad Beynon, Macquarie's Senior Analyst for Gaming, Lodging & Theatres, stated, “Our per-match forecast of $500 million is a global estimate.” He emphasized that since the U.S. accounts for only about 5% of the legal global betting volume during the World Cup, even a hypothetical 40% growth in the U.S. market would remain relatively insignificant.
Beynon also noted that the expanded schedule of the tournament could lead to a dilution of betting activity per match. With more games taking place, the betting volume per match is likely to be distributed more evenly throughout the tournament, potentially lowering per-match volumes.
Macquarie elaborated on its methodology for estimating the $35 billion betting volume for the 2022 FIFA World Cup, stating that this figure is derived solely from legal sports betting activities, excluding offshore wagers. Beynon mentioned, “We estimated that total legal sports betting wagers in 2022 were close to $600 billion-$700 billion across all sports. We assume that during the World Cup period, approximately 50% of global wagers will be placed on World Cup matches.”
It is important to note that Macquarie's forecasts do not take into account prediction markets, as the firm has not established a forecast for trading volumes related to World Cup events on these platforms. Beynon suggested that prediction markets may attract users from states without legal online sportsbooks rather than existing sportsbook customers. He stated, “We believe that most of the growth in sports betting will come from the approximately 40% of the U.S. population without access to legal betting apps, as these products remain quite distinct.”
Macquarie's overall forecast for the World Cup anticipates a 2%-5% increase in operator EBITDA by 2027, identifying Flutter Entertainment, Super Group, and Rush Street Interactive as the companies likely to benefit the most from the tournament.