New projections from H2 Gambling Capital indicate that by 2028, nearly one in five pounds wagered online in the UK may be placed with illegal gambling operators. The research suggests that black-market operators will represent 19.2% of all online betting and gaming stakes within the next three years.
Currently, the total amount wagered with illegal operators is expected to grow significantly, from £17 billion ($22.78 billion) in 2025 to over £33 billion ($44.22 billion) by 2028.
These alarming figures were published prior to a meeting of the Gambling Commission board scheduled for May 21, where discussions will focus on financial risk assessments (FRAs).
The Betting and Gaming Council (BGC) has expressed concern over these forecasts, highlighting the ongoing expansion of the illegal gambling sector, which operates outside the UK's regulatory framework, avoids taxation, and does not adhere to the safer gambling standards required of licensed operators.
Grainne Hurst, CEO of BGC, stated, “These forecasts serve as a wake-up call. The black market is not a distant threat; it is rapidly growing, becoming more prominent, and attracting billions in stakes from UK customers.”
Hurst emphasized that by 2028, nearly 20% of online stakes could be with unregulated operators, which do not contribute to UK taxes, do not create British jobs, and lack the protections found in the regulated market.
Moreover, the BGC raised concerns that increased taxes, financial scrutiny, and additional regulatory demands could push some customers away from licensed operators and toward unregulated sites.
“The message for policymakers is clear: if the regulated market becomes less competitive due to higher taxes or excessive checks, customers will not cease gambling; they will simply turn to the black market,” Hurst warned.
As the Gambling Commission evaluates financial risk assessments, Hurst stressed the importance of ensuring that any checks implemented are seamless and well-targeted. “Any policy that inadvertently drives more customers to illegal operators will jeopardize player safety and harm the regulated sector,” she added.
Hurst also urged ministers and regulators to refrain from introducing measures that would inadvertently benefit the black market.
According to the BGC, the regulated betting and gaming industry supports approximately 109,000 jobs in the UK, contributes £6.8 billion ($9.11 billion) to the economy, and generates £4 billion ($5.36 billion) in annual tax revenue.