A recent report from Macquarie suggests that global betting on the 2026 FIFA World Cup may exceed $50 billion, positioning it as the largest betting event ever recorded.
This projection is based on the anticipated wagering activity per match being similar to that of the 2022 tournament, despite the increased accessibility of legal betting and the event being hosted in North America.
The upcoming World Cup will see an expansion from 32 to 48 teams and from 64 to 104 matches, taking place across the U.S., Canada, and Mexico. Macquarie attributes the expected surge in betting to not only the higher number of matches but also to the broader availability of sports betting in the U.S. and ongoing innovations in betting products.
Macquarie's estimates indicate that over $35 billion was wagered during the 2022 World Cup, averaging about $0.5 billion per match, which serves as a foundation for their 2026 predictions. They foresee a similar betting volume per match, leading to a total of $50 billion, boosted by a 60% increase in matches and additional betting options like parlays and player props.
The report highlights the growth of the U.S. sports betting market, noting that around 65% of the U.S. population now has access to legal sports betting, an increase from about 40% during the last World Cup.
Despite the enhanced legal access and the event's North American hosting, Macquarie did not clarify why they expect similar betting activity per match compared to 2022.
The projected figures place the World Cup significantly ahead of other major sporting events. For instance, the 2022 final between France and Argentina generated approximately $5.25 billion in wagers, while Macquarie estimates that the 2026 Super Bowl will attract about $1.8 billion in betting activity.
Macquarie also notes that the World Cup presents a prime opportunity for operators to acquire new customers, particularly in the U.S. This tournament marks the first World Cup with widespread national participation in the U.S., attributed to factors like improved legal access and advanced betting products.
The long-term success of this strategy will rely on operators' ability to convert World Cup bettors into loyal customers and encourage them to engage with higher-margin products, such as online casino games.
Macquarie predicts that the financial benefits from the World Cup will become more evident in 2027, estimating a 2%-5% increase in operator EBITDA in the following year. The report identifies Flutter Entertainment, Super Group, and Rush Street Interactive as key players likely to benefit from the tournament.
Furthermore, operators with significant exposure to international soccer markets and integrated sportsbook and iGaming platforms are expected to be in the best position to leverage increased engagement.
Data providers like Sportradar and Genius Sports are also highlighted as potential beneficiaries of the upcoming event.