SOFTSWISS has shared insights with iGN regarding the regulatory status of prediction markets across various jurisdictions, based on a new industry report. Here are the key findings:
North America:
In the USA, the federal regulator CFTC requires a DCM license, but states can classify the same products as unlicensed gambling. In March 2026, Arizona initiated criminal proceedings against Kalshi for betting on local elections, while Ohio fined Kalshi $5 million for unlicensed sports betting.
In Canada, only three types of contracts are permitted (financial indicators, economic, and environmental forecasts) with a minimum duration of 30 days. Polymarket has been blocked in Ontario.
Latin America:
Brazil, Argentina, Venezuela, and Colombia have blocked Polymarket, classifying the platform as an illegal gambling product. However, Polymarket is available in 10 other countries in the region, including Bolivia, Chile, Ecuador, and Peru. There is no unified regulatory approach in the region, and platforms are neither explicitly banned nor allowed.
Asia:
A significant gray area exists in Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong, Malaysia, and Vietnam, where trading is formally possible, but local authorities may deem it illegal. Direct bans are in place in Singapore, China, Thailand, and Indonesia.
Europe:
The legal framework is unclear in the Netherlands, Spain, and Denmark, where international platforms operate without local licenses. Countries like Italy, France, Belgium, Germany, and Poland require local gambling licenses, and without them, platforms are blocked. In Germany, betting is only allowed on sporting events. Malta is the first in the EU to develop a specific regulatory framework for prediction markets, while the UK requires a UKGC license with intermediary status for betting.
Oceania:
Australia blocked Polymarket in 2025 as an unlicensed gambling service, with the ACMA regulator highlighting the need for a local license for legal operation. New Zealand has a similar regulatory stance.
According to SOFTSWISS, prediction markets do not fit into either the trading or gambling categories, and each jurisdiction decides the matter independently. Precedents are emerging faster than laws.