As the NFL gears up for its 2026 season, the excitement surrounding prediction markets is palpable. With late August upon us, the U.S. gambling sector is intensely focused on football.
Despite the NFL renewing its sponsorship agreements with DraftKings and FanDuel just weeks before the season begins, the league remains firm in its stance against allowing prediction markets as marketing allies. However, operators in this space are creatively finding ways to engage fans, even if it means branching out into other sports.
Novigis is making waves in the prediction market arena, showcasing a remarkable start. A key development to observe this season is the company's choice to stop using American odds for pricing, a move that founder Jacob Fortinsky describes as a step toward creating a product that resembles a true financial market.
In other noteworthy developments, Donald Trump Jr. has been promoting prediction markets to state attorneys general, a DraftKings SEC filing has raised eyebrows, and Atlantic City is keeping a watchful eye on the evolving landscape.
Here’s a summary of this week’s notable winners and losers in the industry.
Bingo: Kalshi Charts Impressive Growth Ahead of Football Season
Kalshi continues to break records, with projections indicating that it will exceed $200 billion in trading volume by the end of today, August 28. This figure is expected to double in the next five months. Holding an impressive 85% share of the burgeoning prediction market sector, Kalshi is undeniably a powerhouse.
Bust: Trump Jr. Joins the Fight for Prediction Markets
The Trump family's interest in prediction markets is well-known. This week, reports surfaced that Donald Trump Jr. engaged in some behind-the-scenes lobbying for the industry. According to The New York Times, during a retreat for Republican attorneys general in New Orleans, he highlighted the benefits of prediction exchanges to his peers, many of whom are critical of the CFTC's regulation of sports event contracts. While it's unclear how much influence he will have, his involvement adds to the perception of a close relationship between the federal government and this emerging industry.
Bingo: Kalshi Expands with MLB Team Sponsorships
While some traditional baseball fans may not appreciate the betting aspect, Kalshi's recent sponsorship deals with five MLB teams—Atlanta Braves, Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Dodgers, San Diego Padres, and San Francisco Giants—demonstrate a strategic move into sports marketing. With the NFL's reluctance to welcome prediction markets, MLB has been more receptive, allowing Kalshi to capitalize on opportunities in California, where it faces little competition from legal sportsbooks.
Bingo: Professional Bettors Eye Big Opportunities
As the Supreme Court prepares to make rulings, professional bettors are seizing the moment. With many regulated sportsbooks distancing themselves from prediction markets, these bettors are looking for significant opportunities in the current landscape.