The Roundhill Sports Betting & iGaming ETF has demonstrated a remarkable correlation with Bitcoin since 2020, with analysts suggesting that this sports betting-centric fund could serve as a leading indicator for movements within the cryptocurrency market.
According to data from CoinDesk, the 90-day correlation coefficient between BETZ and the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF is 0.73, while the 365-day coefficient is even higher at 0.91. This indicates that these two assets have been closely aligned in their price movements over the past year.
An R-squared value of approximately 0.83 implies that over 80% of the price variations between the two assets are statistically correlated. This reinforces the perspective among some market analysts that both assets are perceived as speculative and sensitive to market risks.
The correlation has gained attention as BETZ has historically reached its highs and lows ahead of Bitcoin during significant market cycles. For instance, the sports betting ETF hit its peak in September 2021, two months prior to Bitcoin achieving its then-record high in November. Conversely, BETZ hit its lowest point in September 2022, roughly three months before Bitcoin's downturn during the so-called “Crypto Winter.”
Analysts have also noted a similar trend anticipated in 2025, where BETZ is expected to peak in August before Bitcoin potentially declines later in the year.
While experts warn that correlation does not imply causation, the consistent timing discrepancies between these two assets may attract traders' attention.
This ongoing pattern contributes to a larger discussion about Bitcoin's position in financial markets, with some investors asserting that the cryptocurrency functions more like a macro risk asset rather than a traditional safe haven.
Notable figures, including Ray Dalio, have previously stated that Bitcoin is closely linked to investor sentiment and liquidity conditions.
Launched in June 2020, BETZ is the first exchange-traded fund specifically focused on sports betting stocks. The fund tracks the Morningstar Sports Betting & iGaming Select Index and currently manages assets between $47.9 million and $50 million.
BETZ includes 30 gaming-related stocks from both the U.S. and international markets, with its largest holding being Rush Street Interactive, which comprises approximately 8.05% of the portfolio.
As per the issuer's data, BETZ has achieved annualized returns of 3.67% since its inception.