In the first quarter of 2026, Robinhood achieved unprecedented trading volumes in event contracts, reporting a staggering 8.8 billion contracts traded. However, this achievement came alongside a disappointing earnings report that fell short of analyst forecasts, compounded by a significant drop in cryptocurrency revenue.
During the earnings call, CEO Vlad Tenev highlighted that the company experienced “record levels across prediction markets,” while CFO Shiv Verma characterized the quarter as a “record quarter for both prediction markets and futures.”
Despite the earnings miss, the trading activity remained robust throughout the quarter. January alone saw 3.4 billion contracts traded, followed by 2.4 billion in February and 3.0 billion in March. This consistency indicates a sustained interest in event-based trading, with no singular event causing spikes in volume, even with major events like the Super Bowl and March Madness.
Since the launch of its prediction markets hub in early 2025, Robinhood has witnessed a remarkable increase in event contract trading. The volumes surged from over 1 billion contracts in the first six months to 8.5 billion in Q4 2025, marking a significant breakout for the product.
For the entirety of 2025, the company reported over 12 billion event contracts traded, with Tenev declaring prediction markets as “the fastest-growing business we’ve ever had.”
In terms of revenue, Robinhood reported $147 million in “other transaction revenue,” a staggering 320% increase year-over-year. This category encompasses event contracts along with newer trading products like futures and instant withdrawals. Despite the higher trading volumes, the revenue per contract showed a decline, with Q1’s annualized revenue run rate at approximately $415 million, down from $435 million in Q4 2025.
Robinhood is also diversifying its event contract offerings beyond traditional sports, introducing new types of contracts such as preset combinations and player-specific contracts. Tenev noted that the platform is beginning to expand into broader event categories, including political and macroeconomic events, which could attract a wider user base.
Looking ahead, Robinhood is set to enhance its prediction market infrastructure through Rothera, a joint venture with Susquehanna, expected to launch in Q2 2026. This new platform aims to provide “end-to-end control” over the customer experience, moving away from reliance on third-party exchanges. Tenev anticipates that the prediction market sector may see consolidation as it matures, suggesting that not many competing platforms will survive in the long run.