Eilers & Krejcik Gaming (EKG) has released its first joint forecast, predicting that sportsbooks will handle $31.7 billion in bets for the NFL, while prediction markets are estimated to reach $8.4 billion. However, the prediction market figure relies on an unpublished method to convert exchange trading volumes into a sportsbook-like handle, suggesting that the actual share might be larger based on Week 1 data.
According to EKG's analysis, Americans are expected to wager approximately $40 billion during the 2026 NFL season. This estimate, detailed in a note dated September 16 titled “NFL Wagering To Hit $40bn This Season,” includes $31.7 billion from regulated sportsbooks, both online and retail, along with $8.4 billion classified as prediction market “Handle Analog (HAN).”
This projection indicates that prediction markets could account for around 21% of total NFL wagering, leaving 79% for traditional sportsbooks. EKG's report describes the 2026 season as the first where prediction markets will compete on a large scale with regulated sportsbooks.
Different forecasts for NFL wagering present a range of estimates. The American Gaming Association (AGA) anticipates a legal handle of $29.5 billion, which is nearly unchanged from last season's $29.4 billion, attributing the stagnation to “backdoor sports betting” linked to prediction markets. Meanwhile, H2 Gambling Capital expects a slight decline to $31.4 billion, marking the first decrease in the legal betting era. In contrast, RotoWire predicts a record $32.3 billion for sportsbooks and $36.8 billion for prediction market trading volumes related to NFL outcomes.
The discrepancies among these forecasts stem from varying definitions and methodologies. The AGA focuses solely on commercial sportsbooks, while RotoWire's figure represents notional trading volume, which does not directly correlate to actual betting handle.
EKG stands out as the only forecaster providing a comparable combined figure, emphasizing the significance of its 21% prediction and the need for scrutiny of its methodology. The sportsbook estimate implies an approximate 8% growth year-over-year, surpassing the firm’s underlying growth assumption of around 5%, excluding World Cup impacts. This growth is attributed to aggressive acquisition strategies from major operators like bet365, FanDuel, Fanatics, and DraftKings.
On the prediction market side, EKG utilizes a model called the Prediction Markets Monitor, which analyzes daily trading data from platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. This data is then converted into the Handle Analog figure through a proprietary model. The $8.4 billion figure for NFL betting results from this conversion, with the 21% share derived from dividing this amount by the total anticipated wagering of $40.1 billion.
EKG's monthly series indicates a rapid increase in HAN, with figures rising from about $2 billion in March to $6 billion in July. The report acknowledges that the prediction market estimate carries a greater uncertainty compared to the regulated sportsbook forecast, reflecting the category's swift growth and the challenges in translating prediction market activities into sportsbook-equivalent handles.
However, the translation ratio used to derive the $8.4 billion figure remains undisclosed, limiting verification of the accuracy of this estimate. The note highlights that exchange volume includes both sides of a trade and market-maker flow, complicating the conversion process. An analysis of Kalshi's August trade data revealed that conventional methods could produce figures significantly larger than the actual premium staked.
Moreover, early evidence from Week 1 suggests that the prediction market figures may be underestimated, indicating potential for higher actual numbers.