The NFL has recently signaled a significant change in its approach to prediction markets, advising operators like Kalshi and Polymarket to steer clear of contracts that could be influenced by insider information or easily manipulated events.
According to a report from ESPN, the league expressed its concerns in letters sent on Sunday, emphasizing the need to establish clear boundaries in this rapidly growing sector. The NFL specifically highlighted events that could be easily swayed or anticipated, such as comments made by announcers during broadcasts, the attendance of celebrities at games, and the upcoming draft.
In these communications, the NFL identified four main categories of prediction market offerings that it finds objectionable:
- Events susceptible to influence by a single person (e.g., missed field goals)
- Outcomes that can be predicted in advance (e.g., draft selections, player signings, coaching changes)
- Markets related to officiating decisions
- Topics deemed “inherently objectionable,” such as player injuries and fan safety
Many of these requests mirror what the league typically expects from traditional sportsbooks. The NFL also raised alarms about markets that are not generally offered by sportsbooks, including commentary from broadcasters and celebrity attendance.
Jeff Miller, NFL's executive vice president, stated, “Some individuals will possess information that they can share,” underscoring the league's desire to distance itself from insider information wagers.
As the NFL aims to safeguard players, coaches, and officials from “unfair and unwanted allegations” associated with gambling and prediction markets, the league's concerns arise amidst a notable increase in sports-related prediction market activities.
For instance, during the Super Bowl, Kalshi reported nearly $900 million in trading volume across various markets, including those linked to broadcaster mentions and celebrity appearances—areas the NFL is now looking to restrict.
The market for celebrity attendees alone generated $36.8 million, while advertiser-related markets exceeded $40 million in trading volume. This surge has raised questions regarding insider trading, particularly concerning the celebrity attendees market.
ESPN's David Purdum has shared examples of the types of contracts that the NFL has flagged, which include:
- Decisions made by officials, such as penalty timing, quantity, type, replay results, and referee assignments
- Game sequence events, like the first play of a game
- Personnel decisions, including roster choices, trades, and draft selections
- Coaching strategies and in-game decisions
Additionally, the NFL has highlighted markets related to specific, single-play or micro-event contracts, such as:
- “Will a kicker miss a field goal?”
- “Will a quarterback’s first pass be incomplete?”
- “Will a receiver’s first target be complete?”
- “Will a running back rush for fewer than X yards on their first attempt?”
Beyond gameplay, the NFL has also pointed out markets associated with:
- Broadcast content, including announcer mentions
- Celebrity or fan attendance
- Sensitive subjects like player injuries, fan safety, and player misconduct
The NFL's evolving stance on prediction markets reflects a shift from cautious observation to actively setting boundaries as the market expands.