Meta is reportedly developing a new smartphone application called Arena, which aims to enter the competitive prediction market space. Unlike existing platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket, Arena will leverage Meta's vast user base, potentially reaching billions globally.
This innovative project, which is still in the experimental phase, will allow users to predict real-world outcomes using a points-based system instead of real-money bets. According to a report by The New York Times, the app has been identified as a key priority for Meta.
By launching without real-money wagering, Meta could avoid many regulatory challenges that prediction market operators currently face in the U.S. and other regions like Europe and India, where strict regulations are in place.
Meta plans to utilize its existing platforms—Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp—to promote Arena, capitalizing on its collective audience of over 3.5 billion daily active users.
This is not Meta's first foray into prediction markets; the company previously launched an app called Forecast in 2020, which was discontinued in 2022. The prediction market sector has seen significant growth, with combined trading volumes for Kalshi and Polymarket reaching approximately $24 billion in April, a substantial increase from $5 billion in September 2025.
Investment firm Bernstein has projected that the prediction market sector could achieve an annual volume of $1 trillion by 2030. Arena could complement Meta's existing gaming offerings, as the company’s advertising policies permit promotions for social casinos as long as they do not involve real-money winnings.
As Meta prepares to launch Arena, it continues to face scrutiny regarding gambling-related content on its platforms. A Reuters investigation revealed that a significant portion of Meta's revenue is derived from ads promoting scams and unlicensed gambling sites. Regulators in various countries, including France, the U.K., Malaysia, and Brazil, have raised concerns about Meta's handling of such promotions.
Moreover, Arena will enter a complex regulatory landscape, with recent proposals from the CFTC aiming to restrict contracts related to sensitive topics like war and terrorism. Legal challenges in several U.S. states have also questioned whether prediction markets should be classified as gambling products, potentially leading to Supreme Court involvement.
The future of Arena, whether it remains a free-to-play platform or transitions to real-money markets, may hinge on the evolving regulatory climate.