As March Madness approaches, the U.S. gambling sector is gearing up for a significant increase in betting activity, particularly with sportsbooks and prediction markets. This surge coincides with lawmakers in various states deliberating on crucial gambling legislation.
The NCAA March Madness tournament kicks off this week, anticipated to be one of the year's most significant betting events. Sportsbooks typically experience a notable uptick in activity during this period, making it an opportune time for operators to attract new bettors through promotions, parlay offers, and bracket contests.
Similar to the Super Bowl, which saw $500 million in trading volume on Kalshi, this year's tournament is expected to see prediction markets become more integrated into popular culture. Kalshi's market for the March Madness champion has already amassed over $58 million in trading volume, with Duke leading at 22%, followed by Michigan at 18% and Arizona at 17%. The rankings of these teams have fluctuated slightly in recent days.
These top teams also rank as favorites on sportsbook platforms. DraftKings lists Duke, Michigan, and Arizona as the frontrunners, while FanDuel places Arizona at the top, followed by Duke and Michigan.
However, the tournament is not without its challenges, as integrity concerns regarding prop bets in college sports are on the rise. The NCAA has advocated for a nationwide ban and has recently implemented player-availability reporting rules.
In terms of prediction markets, the trading volume could indicate a shift of bettors moving away from traditional sportsbooks. Observers will be watching to see if the probability estimates in these markets align closely with sportsbook odds as the tournament progresses.
In addition to March Madness, several state legislatures are making headlines with significant gambling bills.
Virginia: The legislative session that concluded on March 14 was closely monitored by industry stakeholders. Lawmakers proposed various bills aimed at expanding and regulating gambling, some of which have now reached Governor Abigail Spanberger's desk.
Among the measures awaiting the governor's decision are regulations concerning skill games and daily fantasy sports, as well as a potential casino referendum in Fairfax County. However, stalled proposals include the legalization of online casinos and the establishment of a new regulatory body. Competing versions of these bills were passed by both chambers but are now in conference committee negotiations after amendments were adopted.
Observers are keen to see whether Spanberger will sign, veto, or amend these bills, especially the skill games legislation, which was vetoed by former Governor Glenn Youngkin in 2024. Additionally, local opposition may impact the Fairfax casino referendum if the governor approves the bill.
Massachusetts: Two remaining iGaming bills are facing crucial committee reporting deadlines this week. A separate proposal was effectively shelved after being sent to a legislative study order. While two other proposals remain technically alive, the window for committee action is closing rapidly.
It remains to be seen whether either bill will advance beyond the committee stage.
Wisconsin: The Wisconsin Assembly passed a mobile sports betting bill last month, which could be presented to the Senate this week. This measure aims to legalize online sports betting under the control of the state’s Native American tribes, similar to Florida's model.
Despite passing the House, the bill's future in the Senate is uncertain, as lawmakers are divided on the issue.