The March Madness championship is set to take place as various courts, lawmakers, and governors prepare for a week filled with significant developments in prediction markets, sports betting, and sweepstakes casinos.
This week, the NCAA men’s national championship game between Michigan and UConn marks the culmination of what could be one of the most heavily wagered tournaments in March Madness history. Michigan enters this final as a top-three favorite among both traditional sportsbooks and prediction markets.
Beyond the outcome of the game, this year’s tournament highlights the scale of betting activity. The American Gaming Association projects that Americans will legally wager approximately $3.3 billion across the NCAA tournaments.
Prediction markets are also experiencing notable trading volumes. Although they cannot use trademarked terms, platforms like Kalshi have attracted attention with various promotions, including a $1 billion bracket contest. As of the morning before the final, Kalshi's champion market has seen over $228 million in trading volume, while Polymarket, operating under limited capacity in the U.S., has recorded around $26 million.
Post-game data from operators and market analysts will provide insights into handle, prop betting activity, and parlay mixes, as well as the impact of the final result on operator hold.
In terms of legal developments, two significant hearings related to the state versus prediction markets case occurred on April 3. A federal judge in Nevada has extended a ban on certain event contracts offered by Kalshi, but no ruling has yet been issued in Arizona.
A federal judge is currently considering Kalshi’s request for a preliminary injunction against the state, alongside discussions about whether the court should even take up the case, given Arizona's criminal proceedings against the platform. A decision is anticipated this week.
Additionally, the legal conflict has intensified at the federal level, with the U.S. government filing lawsuits against Arizona, Connecticut, and Illinois, claiming that state regulations on event contracts violate the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s exclusive authority.
This situation raises the potential for further federal lawsuits against states, especially those that have initiated or are contemplating enforcement actions against prediction markets.
Washington is also emerging as a potential battleground. In late March, the state filed a lawsuit against Kalshi, accusing the platform of running an illegal gambling operation. The operator has moved the case to federal court, while Robinhood has initiated a separate preemptive lawsuit against the state.
Key points to watch include whether Arizona will issue a ruling, if the CFTC will pursue lawsuits against additional states, and any developments in Washington, including whether the state will attempt to return the case to state court, a strategy that has previously worked in Nevada.
On the legislative front, several bills concerning sweepstakes casinos and prediction markets are set for hearings this week. Oklahoma’s SB 1589 is scheduled for a House Criminal Judiciary Committee hearing on April 7, which amends the state’s gambling laws to include online casino-style offerings. Meanwhile, Louisiana’s HB 883 will have its first committee hearing on April 8, explicitly banning dual-currency payment systems.