In Spain, the owners of an unnamed La Liga club reportedly placed over $1 million against their own team on the prediction market Kalshi, insuring themselves against relegation. As the season neared its end, the club faced the risk of dropping to the Segunda division and losing broadcast revenue. Thus, they bet that the team would not win a match, with the potential winnings covering losses from relegation.
According to Semafor, citing sources, the team won that match 1-0, securing their place in the top division, while they lost the bet against themselves.
The other side of the deal was taken by the quant firm Susquehanna, which earned over $1 million from the club's losing bet. This incident could lead to a scandal, as Kalshi's rules prohibit club owners from trading contracts on matches, and Spain forbids them from betting on any tournament matches, not just their own team.
The club now faces potential fines from regulators and sanctions from La Liga and UEFA, although they are not accused of manipulating the match outcome. Shortly after the deal, on May 26, Spain blocked Kalshi and Polymarket as unlicensed iGaming products.