Kalshi has officially launched its prediction market services in Brazil, marking its first venture beyond the United States. This expansion comes through a collaboration with XP International, a prominent Brazilian brokerage firm. Clients of XP’s Clear Corretora brand who have international investment accounts can now access Kalshi’s platform to trade contracts associated with real-world events.
Initially, Brazilian investors will be able to engage in trading contracts related to financial and economic developments. In contrast, Kalshi’s offerings in the United States also encompass contracts based on sports and entertainment outcomes.
With the announcement made on Monday, Kalshi has positioned itself as the first operator of prediction markets to launch in Brazil. This development puts the company ahead of B3, the Brazilian stock exchange, which received approval from the Brazilian Securities and Exchange Commission in February to become the nation's first prediction market operator. Reports indicated that B3 was anticipated to unveil its own platform by the end of March.
Currently, Brazil does not have a formal regulatory framework for prediction markets. Although the online betting industry has been regulated since the legal market opened on January 1 of last year, these regulations are specifically tailored to licensed fixed-odds betting operators.
According to these regulations, operators must establish a headquarters in Brazil, adhere to stringent know-your-customer protocols, and meet certification requirements. Additionally, they are obligated to pay a license fee of BRL30 million (approximately $5.8 million) and face significant tax responsibilities.
Legal experts note that the status of prediction markets remains ambiguous in Brazil's broader regulatory landscape. Andre Santa Ritta, a partner at Pinheiro Neto Advogados, remarked that the rise of prediction markets presents another challenge for the country's betting industry.
“In Brazil, there exists a regulatory grey area regarding the placement of the prediction market sector, as it does not fit neatly into either iGaming or the fixed-odds betting framework,” Santa Ritta explained to iGB. “We lack regulations categorizing it as a type of derivative, as is done in the US. Thus, the prediction market in Brazil remains in a grey zone, presenting numerous opportunities for those willing to take risks while simultaneously removing consumers from the regulated iGaming sector.”
Kalshi had previously expressed interest in entering the Brazilian market. Co-founder Luana Lopes Lara, a native of Brazil, mentioned in December that the company was considering this move and aimed to announce the expansion by early 2026. Following the official launch, Lopes Lara emphasized the significance of the partnership with XP International.
“As a Brazilian, I am thrilled that XP is Kalshi’s first brokerage partner outside the US. XP is one of Brazil’s largest financial institutions, and expanding prediction markets to Brazil is a crucial step in ensuring more individuals worldwide have access to fair, safe, and regulated markets,” she stated.