The prediction market platform Kalshi has imposed disciplinary measures against three American politicians for trading contracts on markets where their victory was a possible outcome. Kalshi deemed these actions a violation of Rule 5.17(z), which prohibits traders with direct or indirect influence on the outcome of an underlying event from trading in the corresponding market, regardless of its scale. All three politicians have had their direct and indirect access to the platform suspended for five years.
Mark Moran, a candidate in the Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate from Virginia, placed 10 bids on the market 'Who will run for state office this year?' on November 13 and 14, 2025. On January 27, 2026, he executed two trades on the market 'Democratic candidate for the Senate from Virginia?' and subsequently promoted this market on social media. In discussions with Kalshi's compliance and legal departments, Moran acknowledged the trades were improper but repeatedly refused to agree to a settlement and stopped responding to the compliance department. As a result, Moran was fined $6,229.30, with profits from the trades confiscated.
Ezequiel Enriquez and Matt Klein, candidates in the Republican primaries from Texas's 21st district and Minnesota's 2nd district respectively, also purchased contracts related to their own candidacies, each for less than $100. According to settlement agreements approved on April 10, 2026, they received fines of $784.20 and $539.85 respectively.