Kalshi has officially introduced its prediction market services in Brazil through a collaboration with XP International, marking its first venture beyond the United States. This new initiative enables clients of XP’s Clear Corretora, who have international investment accounts, to engage with Kalshi’s platform and trade contracts associated with real-world events.
Initially, Brazilian investors will focus on trading contracts related to financial and economic trends. In contrast, Kalshi’s offerings in the United States also encompass contracts linked to sports and entertainment outcomes.
With this launch, announced on Monday, Kalshi has become the inaugural prediction market operator to commence operations in Brazil. This advancement positions the company ahead of B3, the Brazilian stock exchange, which received approval from the Brazilian Securities and Exchange Commission in February to establish itself as the first prediction market operator in the country. Industry sources had anticipated that B3 would unveil its platform by the end of March.
Currently, Brazil does not have a defined regulatory framework for prediction markets. While the online betting sector has been regulated since the legal market opened on January 1 of last year, these regulations specifically target licensed fixed-odds betting operators.
According to these regulations, operators are required to set up headquarters in Brazil and adhere to stringent know-your-customer and certification standards. Additionally, they must pay a licensing fee of BRL30 million (approximately $5.8 million) and comply with significant tax obligations.
Legal experts express uncertainty regarding the status of prediction markets within Brazil's broader regulatory landscape. Andre Santa Ritta, a partner at Pinheiro Neto Advogados, noted that the rise of prediction markets presents another challenge for the country's betting industry.
“In Brazil, we find ourselves in a regulatory grey area where the position of the prediction market industry is unclear, as it does not fit neatly into either the iGaming category or the fixed-odds betting framework,” Santa Ritta explained to iGB.
“We lack regulations that classify it as a type of derivative, which is how it is managed in the US. Thus, in Brazil, prediction markets remain in a grey zone, presenting numerous opportunities for those willing to take risks while simultaneously removing consumers from the regulated iGaming sector.”
Kalshi had previously indicated its plans to enter the Brazilian market. Co-founder Luana Lopes Lara, a native of Brazil, mentioned in December that the company was considering this move and aimed to announce the expansion in early 2026. Following the official launch, Lopes Lara emphasized the significance of the partnership with XP International.
“As a Brazilian, I am thrilled to see XP become Kalshi’s first brokerage partner outside the US. XP is among Brazil’s largest financial institutions, and expanding prediction markets to Brazil is a crucial step in making fair, safe, and regulated markets accessible to more people worldwide,” she stated.