On July 16, the prediction market platform Kalshi, in collaboration with the analytics company AppliedXL, launched 13 pilot contracts focused on the outcomes of clinical trials for various drugs and decisions by the U.S. drug market regulator, the FDA.
Among the trials included is a Phase 3 study of the drug AR1001 for early-stage Alzheimer's disease, as well as the FDA's approval of the therapy anito-cel (Gilead, Arcellx) for multiple myeloma.
To mitigate insider risks, only late-stage trials are included in the pilot. Kalshi will open trading only after the participant recruitment is completed and will require traders in these markets to confirm their employment status.
The basis for contract calculations includes public documents, such as registered trial objectives on ClinicalTrials.gov and FDA approval letters. The evaluation criteria are established by AppliedXL even before trading begins.