Gambling Insider has uncovered that the collaboration between ADI Predictstreet and Kalshi is not as intertwined as previously suggested by reports from the New York Times and Bloomberg.
When asked if Kalshi was indeed offering market-making services to ADI Predictstreet, directing trading volumes their way, and contemplating an investment in ADI Chain, the response was a clear denial.
A representative from Kalshi stated, “Kalshi is not providing market-making services to ADI Predictstreet, nor is it investing in ADI Chain.”
The situation regarding whether Kalshi is directing trading volume to its new co-branding partner, as claimed by the New York Times, is somewhat less straightforward. The Times had reported that “Under the terms of the partnership, Kalshi will funnel betting volume to ADI Predictstreet’s platform across international markets.”
It seems that there may have been some misinterpretation by eager journalists interpreting the official Kalshi press release, which originally mentioned that “Kalshi will provide market expansion to ADI Predictstreet’s platform across its international markets.”
Some media outlets have connected the dots by referencing “Kalshi liquidity capabilities” in relation to ADI Predictstreet’s challenges in attracting liquidity. This may lead casual readers to mistakenly believe that Kalshi is supplying liquidity.
We contacted the Kalshi team for clarification regarding the volume issue.
It appears the Times may have jumped the gun. Elisabeth Diana, Kalshi’s head of communications, clarified in a statement to Gambling Insider: “The NYT mention is that we might in the future let ADI use our markets for their volume — similar to Coinbase and Robinhood.”
In essence, while there may be potential for order-flow routing in the future, it is not currently happening. Furthermore, order-flow routing is distinctly different from market-making.
It’s important to note that the partnership includes promotional elements. For instance, visitors to adipredictstreet.com in the US are informed: “ADI Predictstreet isn’t available in your region. But you can still trade on our official partner platform!” This message includes a link directing users to the Kalshi website.
More notably, ADI Predictstreet has introduced a World Cup Hub with Fanatics Markets, targeting US soccer enthusiasts.
ADI Predictstreet is believed to have invested $150 million to secure a top-tier sponsorship for the FIFA World Cup, in contrast to the significantly lower $20 million that Kalshi reportedly spent on co-branding.
Despite the heightened visibility from the partnership, ADI Predictstreet has not seen a surge in business. For example, the betting volume for the USA vs Belgium FIFA World Cup quarter-final on ADI Predictstreet totaled only $422,491, while Kalshi’s market for the same event reached $17.3 million.
The controversy surrounding the rescinded red card for USMNT player Folarin Balogun, which typically would have resulted in a one-game suspension, spurred betting on the soccer match. Ultimately, the USA lost 4-1 to Belgium.
Regarding the ADI Chain, Bloomberg reported on June 30 that Kalshi was “discussing a possible investment in a cryptocurrency created by ADI.”
ADI Predictstreet, backed by Abu Dhabi, has developed a year-old blockchain that it uses for the decentralized settlement of its event contracts. The native currency of this blockchain, which is utilized for transaction fees, is ADI.
According to Coinmarketcap, the ADI coin has a market capitalization of $204 million, with a 24-hour trading volume of $5.15 million. On-chain activity remains low, although there are indications that speculation may be driving the price of ADI upward.