This week, the gambling industry is buzzing with activity surrounding prediction markets, particularly with the FIFA World Cup and the U.S. Open on the horizon. Legal proceedings in Wisconsin and Tennessee are also adding to the excitement, as deadlines for briefings approach.
In Wisconsin, defendants in a lawsuit involving Kalshi and other prediction market operators are required to respond to the state's motion to move the case back to state court by June 15. The state argues that the matter should be handled in state court, while the defendants contend that federal court is more suitable due to the federal commodities law implications. Additionally, Wisconsin has filed a preliminary injunction in anticipation of a possible denial of the remand motion.
In Tennessee, Kalshi must submit its response brief by June 17 regarding an appeal against a preliminary injunction that has halted state officials from enforcing a cease-and-desist order against the exchange. The state is appealing for the Sixth Circuit to reverse the lower court's decision.
As for the World Cup, anticipation is building as the 2026 event is projected to be one of the most significant betting spectacles ever. Prediction market platforms have already seen billions in trading activity related to the tournament. On Polymarket, World Cup markets have exceeded $2.36 billion in total volume, making it the second-highest traded event after the upcoming U.S. elections. Kalshi's market for World Cup winners has also generated around $281 million so far.
Since the tournament kicked off last week, Polymarket has seen an influx of about $400 million in trading volume, while Kalshi has added approximately $180 million. As the tournament progresses and elimination rounds approach, interest is expected to rise, potentially leading to record-breaking trading volumes.
In addition, the 2026 U.S. Open is set to begin on June 18, presenting another opportunity for significant trading activity. The event has already accumulated over $30 million in trading volume, with expectations to surpass the $37 million from The Masters. Scottie Scheffler has been the favorite on Kalshi, maintaining an implied chance of victory between 14% and 15% since May, while Rory McIlroy's odds have dropped from around 9% to approximately 7%.
As the tournament kicks off, it remains to be seen whether trading volume will increase and if McIlroy or other contenders can catch up to Scheffler.
On the regulatory front, the CFTC has filed a lawsuit against New Mexico, marking the eighth state targeted by the agency. This trend indicates that the CFTC is likely to continue its legal actions against states enforcing regulations on prediction markets. Washington state may be next, as it has already initiated a lawsuit against Kalshi, which has since been moved to federal court but returned to state court after a remand was granted.