A recent survey by POLITICO and Public First reveals a notable discomfort among Americans regarding political prediction markets. While the concept of betting on sports events is widely accepted, the same cannot be said for wagers related to elections and political outcomes.
The poll, conducted by the U.K.-based firm Public First, indicated that 44% of participants believe that betting on election results should be prohibited, whereas only 30% support its legality. Similar sentiments were expressed regarding markets focused on presidential pardons and public figures' statements.
As prediction market operators expand their political offerings, analysts have identified elections and public policy contracts as significant growth areas for this emerging sector.
Support for sports-related contracts is markedly higher, with approximately 53% of respondents advocating for their legality, while 23% oppose it. Weather and award show markets also enjoy considerable backing, with nearly half of Americans supporting the legality of weather-related contracts.
However, opinions shift dramatically when politics is involved. For instance, 43% of respondents believe markets tied to presidential pardons should be illegal, and 40% oppose betting on statements made by the president or media outlets.
Contracts related to war and terrorism face the most significant opposition, with 57% and 64% respectively deeming them illegal.
The survey indicates a divided public stance on prediction markets, with 29% viewing their rise negatively, 19% positively, and 28% neutral. Over half of the respondents expressed that they would not consider participating in a prediction market.
Despite public skepticism, political markets are seen as a major growth opportunity. POLITICO reports that nearly $700 million has already been traded on 2028 presidential election markets across platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, with the 2024 U.S. presidential election being the most active event, generating over $3.6 billion in trading volume.
While sports betting currently dominates the market, political prediction markets are increasingly recognized as a key area for future expansion. Analysts from Bloomberg Intelligence have projected that these markets could account for 27% of trading volume by 2030, a significant increase from the current 10%.
As legislative scrutiny of prediction markets intensifies at both federal and state levels, over 25 bills related to these markets have been introduced this year. Some proposals aim to ban election-related contracts and restrict participation by government officials.